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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.